Granite outcrop, Enchanted Rock area. Exposed layers.

Methodology

Where the value begins.

Six layers of analysis before the offer is written.

Most land transactions get evaluated on three layers: comparable sales, market trajectory, and the obvious physical attributes a tour will surface. The work that determines whether a deal is worth doing happens on three more. The regulatory framework that governs what the land can become, the water and infrastructure that determine what is possible, and the surface and subsurface layers that determine what is true.

The B. Bailey Layered Site Analysis applies all six. Each layer surfaces a different category of value or risk. Each layer asks questions that the others cannot. The synthesis is the deliverable.

Market & Comps

Where most underwriting starts, and where most underwriting also ends. Comparable-sale analysis weighted by deal type, hold period, financing structure, and exit conditions.

Questions this layer asks

· Which comps are sale-of-record vs. closed-and-recorded vs. listed-and-pulled?
· What is the absorption rate at the relevant price-per-acre band, and how has it shifted across the last 24 months?
· How do adjustments hold when the subject property carries non-typical attributes (live water, mineral status, easements)?

Worked example

A 600-acre Sutton County tract showed 1.91× appreciation against 2019 comps. Cross-validated against PowerSearch comparable transactions within ±7%, then bracketed against bare-land vs. improved-pasture price bands.

Regulatory & Entitlement

The framework that determines what the land can become. Municipal districts, zoning overlays, ETJ (extraterritorial jurisdiction) status, deed restrictions, and the regulatory shifts that change valuation overnight.

Questions this layer asks

· What is the property's current MUD (Municipal Utility District), PID (Public Improvement District), or special-district status, and what is the trajectory?
· How does post–SB 2038 ETJ disannexation (the 2023 Texas law that allows landowners to exit a city's extraterritorial jurisdiction) change development optionality?
· What deed restrictions, restrictive covenants, or recorded easements survive a sale?

Worked example

A 1.794-acre tract in Fort Bend's Bryan Road corridor required title cleanup across three layers: a recorded lis pendens, a memorandum of contract recorded post-foreclosure by a separate party, and a county appraisal record that had not updated to reflect ownership change. Each had a different resolution path.

Water

Surface water, groundwater, riparian rights, well infrastructure, aquifer position, and the regulatory frameworks that govern each. The layer that determines whether a property has a future.

Questions this layer asks

· What aquifer formation underlies the property, and what is the well depth and yield trajectory?
· Is "live water" perennial, intermittent, or seasonal, and what does the flow data actually show?
· How do current groundwater conservation district restrictions affect permitted use and pumping volumes?

Worked example

A Hill Country tract evaluated for live-water frontage required a read of the Edwards-Trinity contact zone. Well depths varied dramatically across the property based on karst sequence position, which materially changed the carrying-capacity analysis and the buyer's underwriting on a residential homesite location.

Infrastructure

Transportation access, utility availability, transmission and fiber capacity, stormwater management, and the right-of-way encumbrances that govern future development. The layer that determines what is feasible.

Questions this layer asks

· What is the legal vs. physical access status (county road, prescriptive easement, private road maintenance obligation)?
· For commercial or industrial use cases: what is the load-bearing transmission capacity within practical interconnection distance?
· What pipeline easements, wind/solar leases, or telecom rights-of-way encumber the parcel and what are the surface-use limitations?

Worked example

A Permian Basin datacenter site selection across eight properties in three counties required mapping four infrastructure layers: the PUCT 765kV transmission plan, FiberLight backbone routes, water sourcing strategy across competing aquifers, and Texas Railroad Commission seismic response area boundaries. Total acreage under consideration was 4,436 acres at $29.9M+ combined ask.

Surface

Soil composition and suitability, topography and drainage, floodplain status, ecological condition, and the visible attributes that drive both productivity and presentation.

Questions this layer asks

· What soil series occur on the property, and what does that mean for septic suitability, foundation stability, and forage productivity?
· How do FEMA floodplain, floodway, and 500-year flood designations affect both insurability and developable area?
· Where do drainage patterns, soil depth variance, and slope aspect change the highest-and-best-use calculus?

Worked example

A DeWitt County subdivision feasibility study for a 280-acre tract surfaced a $3,000 to $4,000-per-acre value band on floodplain segments versus an $8,200 to $12,000-per-acre band on upland. A delta material enough to reshape the developer's lot yield model and lender presentation.

Subsurface

Geological formation context, fault zone proximity, mineral and geothermal rights status, and the seismic considerations that increasingly affect valuation in active basins.

Questions this layer asks

· What is the formation sequence beneath the surface, and what does that mean for water, foundation, or extractive value?
· Where do active or historic fault zones intersect the property, and how does that change risk pricing?
· For properties in or adjacent to disposal-well activity zones: what is the Texas Railroad Commission seismic response area mapping, and how does it affect long-term marketability?

Worked example

A 305-acre Howard County saltwater disposal feasibility study integrated subsurface formation data with NCR Seismic Response Area mapping to surface a valuation framework that aligned the seller's expectation with the buyer's risk-adjusted offer. The geology was load-bearing on the deal economics, not decorative.

Apply the method to a property

Every engagement begins with a no-obligation review of the property and the layers most relevant to the decision. If a deal merits all six, the work is structured around all six. If two will settle the question, the engagement scopes accordingly.

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